Why it will be difficult for us and for our children in 40 years? Which is tomorrow!
With the rapid growth of the emerging markets (even if we have today a slight slowdown, but it should not last) the global economy will be experiencing a seismic shift. By 2045/2050 the collective size of the economies we currently deem « emerging » will have increased five-fold and will be larger than the developed world .If you look first at the world population, we will jump from 7.7 to 9.7 billion, Asia from 61% to 54%, Africa from 13 up to 25%, Americas from 14 to 13%, Europe from 12% to 7%. Are we ready in Europe for this seismic shift?
19 of the 30 largest economies will be from the emerging world. At the same time, there will be a market decline in the economics of many small population ageing, (rich economies in Europe). Expected size of the economy in 2050: US & China between, 22000 to 25.000 Billion $, which one will be first is more a geopolitical issue than an economic issue! (Countries don’t have friends they only have interests) India 8000 but we always have surprises( good or bad) with this «closed” country without infrastructures today .Japan 6500 this is the only homogenous country so no surprise to expect ,Japan will always be Japan! Germany 3700, but it may be much higher, they have very strong fundamental basics, with strong substantial improvements, UK 3600, the City is the City. France 2800, but with France we can always expect a revival or revolution ,it will come one day maybe before 2040, who knows ? Canada 2300, an economy based on commodities prices? Italy 2200 their efficient small and mid-cap are the heart of this country! , Spain 2000, unless the black money is back and spoiled again the system? Russia 1900 but since 2015, and the embargo their industries improved really a lot, Frankly speaking we can expect economical good news from this country. Switzerland 700, Hong Kong 650…
Over half of the global population growth will take place in Africa, adding 1.3 b people, 48 countries “least developed countries” are expected to double in population size ; 33 countries, will triple by 2100.
Some good reasons to forecast a growth in Africa: 1. Population urbanization 2. Macroeconomic management and reform 3. Improved agricultural output & industrial management 4. Relatively stable political.5. Effective aid, & increased domestic revenues 6. Growth foreign investment 7. Within a couple of year, demand from China in particular but also certainly from India, Brazil and others 8. Commodities boom.
Thanks god, we don’t believe in religions J and for sure ISIS will disappear before 2040.
Since 2004/2005 i am a follower of Michael Burry, and like him i think that by 2040/2050 the main issue might be water.
Please see :https://www.linkedin.com/in/bernard-jomard-35464930